Buy-the-dip backtester — does it actually beat a SIP?
The most-argued Indian investing question — does buying every NIFTY dip beat a boring monthly SIP? Set your dip threshold, start year, and amount per buy. We run the actual NIFTY history and compare against a same-total-rupee monthly SIP. Spoiler: it usually doesn't.
Dip-buying strategy
Strategy: invest this amount every day the index closes at least this % below its 30-day rolling high. Compared to an equivalent monthly SIP.
The fair comparison rules we use
- • Dip = close below trailing 30-day high by the % threshold you set. 30-day window mimics a retail trader's reference point.
- • SIP comparison deploys the SAME total capital — we take total dip-buy capital, divide across months in the window, invest equally each month. Fair like-for-like.
- • Both strategies priced at the close of the day they trigger.
- • Zero fees + zero tax — strategy ranking doesn't change at retail scale.
What the math doesn't capture:the OPPORTUNITY COST of cash sitting idle waiting for a dip. Dip-buying assumes you have that cash set aside. If instead you'd have SIPped that cash continuously, the gap between dip-buy and SIP returns narrows even further.
When dip-buying actually wins
Dip-buying has beaten SIP in a few specific windows — typically when the backtest window starts right before a major crash (2007-08, early 2020). In those cases, dip-buys at -10% and -20% levels gave outsized compounding. For most other starting points, the simpler SIP wins because markets trend up more often than they dip. The "buy the dip" meme is largely confirmation bias from cherry-picked windows.
More historical analysis
Research tool · not investment advice.
Axel Markets is an information + analytics product. We are not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst (RA) or Investment Adviser (IA). Nothing on this page is a buy, sell, or hold recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Verify all data against the authoritative source (NSE, BSE, AMFI, SEBI, company RHP / factsheet) before acting. Backtested strategy returns are not a prediction of future returns. Past dip-buying performance depended on specific market regimes that may not repeat. Strategy rules are stylised — real execution adds transaction costs + tax + implementation lag.