IPO allotment probability — what are your actual chances?
Every Indian retail investor asks this before applying: "Given the subscription number, will I actually get allotted?" Math is simple but nobody shows it cleanly for free. We compute the real probability per application AND for your whole family's combined applications, based on SEBI's lottery rules for oversubscribed retail categories.
IPO subscription details
Check the live subscription % on NSE IPO page on the last day of issue. One valid application = 1 lottery ticket for 1 lot (retail category).
The math
single_app_prob = 1 / retail_subscription_times overall_prob = 1 − (1 − single_app_prob) ^ num_applications (assumes each application is independent — true if each is from a separate demat + bank account belonging to a different family member, which is the only legal way to multi-apply in Indian IPOs.)
SEBI rules: one PAN = one retail application per IPO. Multi-demat applications using the same PAN are rejected automatically. Your family members (spouse, parents, siblings, adult children) each file ONE application each with their own PAN + demat + bank.
Scenarios
- • Subscription < 1x — everyone gets full allotment. No lottery.
- • Subscription 1-5x — 20-100% chance per application; family-of-3 virtually certain to get a lot somewhere.
- • Subscription 5-20x — typical popular IPO. Single PAN ~5-20%; family-of-4 ~20-60%.
- • Subscription > 50x — lottery with long odds. Focus on ADDING applications, not hoping yours wins.
SEBI allotment rules (retail category)
- • Up to 2 lakh per application — retail limit. Above that = HNI category.
- • One PAN, one application per IPO. Multiple applications from the same PAN get auto-rejected.
- • If oversubscribed: minimum 1 lot per valid applicant, distributed by random draw. If even 1-lot-to-everyone is impossible (e.g. 10 lakh applicants for 1 lakh lots), then random selection from the 10 lakh applicants gives 1 lot to the winners.
- • Family multi-application is legal as long as each is a distinct PAN + demat + bank combo. Every adult family member can apply with their own.
Why the intuition is often wrong
People assume "subscribed 10x" means "1 in 10 chance" per application. That's the single-application probability. But with 3 family demats applying, the probability that AT LEAST ONE gets allotted becomes 1 − (1 − 0.1)³ ≈ 27%. Not 30% — compounding probabilities, not addition. Our calculator does this math for you.
Expected lot count ≈ num_applications × (1 / subscription_times). So 5 applications in a 10x-subscribed IPO ≈ 0.5 expected lots — you should expect a lot every 2 IPOs with this level of participation, not every IPO.
Paired tools
Research tool · not investment advice.
Axel Markets is an information + analytics product. We are not a SEBI-registered Research Analyst (RA) or Investment Adviser (IA). Nothing on this page is a buy, sell, or hold recommendation. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Verify all data against the authoritative source (NSE, BSE, AMFI, SEBI, company RHP / factsheet) before acting. Formula assumes the 'at least 1 lot per applicant' retail allotment rule. Extremely oversubscribed IPOs (100×+ retail) may switch to pure lottery among applicants. Our formula is approximate in those edge cases.